News reports mostly focus on worrying trends or highlight sensitive issues, and they can be dispiriting if you read or listen to the news all the time. I’ve highlighted a few positive topics that make the case for optimism.

1. The International Energy Agency’s 2024 electricity report

Clocking in at a cool 170 pages it is a lot, so I won’t go into it in detail. However, there are some really positive key points; the IEA forecast that coal-power generation globally peaked in 2023 and is now already on the decline. Renewable energy is expected to generate more than one-third of global electricity supply in 2025, meaning it will overtake coal as the primary electricity supply source next year. More broadly, fossil fuels as a percentage of global electricity supply is forecast to drop from 61% in 2023 to 54% in 2026. That would be the first time ever that fossil fuels produce less than 60% of global electricity supply.

2. India’s gently declining fertility rates

In 2022 India became the world’s largest country, surpassing China. India’s huge population of over 1.4 billion people means that small changes in its demographics has an impact on the rest of the world. A lot has been written about fertility decline in Europe and East Asia, but the Indian story is interesting too. India’s falling fertility rates means it is now slightly below replacement rate, meaning that each generation will be slightly smaller than the previous, eventually leading to population decline. The trick is to ensure this isn’t too drastic, otherwise you end up with an insufficient workforce or populist politicians trying to restrict personal freedoms. India seems to so far be threading the needle, which will lead to improved living standards in the world’s biggest country and reducing the overall effect on the environment.

3. Global inflation is easing

Clearly central banks remain cautious, and don’t want to trigger runaway inflation. But the language used various central banks and the responses by markets tell us there is increased confidence that inflation is now under control. The cost-of-living crisis has been very painful in the UK and it seems that 2024 marks the end of this difficult economic period for many. Market consensus expects falling interest rates later this year across Western economies giving more households increased headroom in their monthly budgets.

And Dune 2 came out, it is amazing. I highly recommend it!